Since our first-ever U.S. Advertising forecast was published in 1950, we’ve been making headlines and sharing our unique perspective and outlooks on the marketplace. Here you’ll find our latest headlines, press releases and thought leadership.
Leading The Way Through Mentorship: Michelle Aragon, SVP, Business Solutions, MAGNA Global
April 8, 2019 // Thought Leadership
By The AD Club of New York. Published on 8 April 2019.
Tell us how your mentor has supported and elevated your career.
This is tricky for me to answer. As a first-generation college graduate, I was unaware of what a mentor or sponsor was/could do for my career development. I’ve always been an observational learner, so early in my career I pieced together “mentorship” by watching people I admired. Admittedly, that kind of unilateral relationship lacks support, specificity, and dialogue. I always relied on my “figure it out” independence, which can get you to a certain point, but it doesn’t prepare you with the invaluable knowledge and experience a mentor(s) can provide.
Since the concept of a mentor wasn’t a part of my formative years, it wasn’t something that I understood how to leverage. Finding a mentor(s) is very personal and needs to be a mutually invested relationship. That’s why relating on a fundamental level of shared interests and experiences that can inform decision-making is imperative. About six years ago, I began to focus on building my network of mentors. I grew them organically through the associations that aligned with my passions, Ad Club being one of those resources. It took a lot of time and effort to cultivate and grow these relationships. Now, I have a trusted group of women and men that provide advice, guidance, and friendship.
My collection of experiences coupled with my go-to network are really what propel me forward in my career, along with tenacity and persistence! While I wasn’t always certain of the direction I was headed as I zig-zagged through my journey, my mentors have helped me focus on navigating career milestones and long-term goals.
What are some tips you would give to a new mentor in how to spot, train and elevate a rising star?
It’s become a personal mission of mine to groom the next generation of leaders, specifically people of color in our business. While everyone can learn something from someone else, I think mentorship is really forming a long-term bond. I truly believe it’s critical for an organic connection or a shared life experience to bring two people together for a successful mentorship match.
As an example, we recently held a Speed Mentorship Mixer (think speed dating, but for mentorship advice) at our organization. It was so much fun! After the event, an attendee emailed me asking if I’d be his mentor. I was flattered to receive his request and immediately thought he could benefit from some feedback on his initial request to apply it moving forward. During that 30-minute chat, we discovered that we had similar backgrounds as first-generation college graduates, Latinx families, non-linear career journeys, etc. He has so much potential, and I could pass on many of the lessons I learned the hard way. We now meet once a month to connect personally and professionally on anything from writing a self-performance review to advocating for himself in his current role.
There are many unwritten rules when it comes to your career. You know the adage, “you don’t know what you don’t know.” For me, it’s about seeking out those who don’t have the knowledge, connections, or resources to guide them in a manner that lets them shine. It’s not about seeking out “rising stars;” it’s about providing equal access to opportunity.
My biggest tip is: anyone can be empowered to be a mentor. There are many social and emotional skills that need to be applied in the workplace daily to help others be better managers and leaders. Recognizing that your experiences have value, whether you have one year or decades, those experiences are worth sharing to help elevate others in their careers.
*Please Note: All statements are the opinion of the author and may not necessarily represent the views of The ADVERTISING Club of New York.Read the full blog post here
Ad Spending Hits a New High as Search Ads, Out-of-Home and Amazon Rise
April 5, 2019 // In the News
Amazon more than doubled its ad revenue in 2018, new report says
By NAT IVES. Published by THE WALL STREET JOURNAL on 5 April 2019.
Marketers drove U.S. advertising spending to a new peak last year, fueled by several large ad events—the Winter Olympics, the World Cup and the midterm elections—as well as demand for keyword-search and out-of-home ads.
U.S. ad spending totaled $212.4 billion in 2018, up 9.6% from the year before, according to a new report from Magna, topping the ad-buying group’s earlier prediction that U.S. ad spending would rise 7.5% to $208.1 billion. It was the ninth consecutive year of growth.
Search-ad spending surged 22.5% to $53.5 billion, aided by enhancements to search-result displays and other advances, according to Vincent Létang, executive vice president of global market intelligence at Magna, which is part of the Interpublic Group of Co s. “It may not be in the spotlight as much as social media or digital media, but it keeps improving, especially in the last few years,” he said.
Search has grown between 17% and 20% in recent years by Magna’s calculations. “We expected that growth rate to slow down somewhat and instead it accelerated,” Mr. Létang said.
Brands also are pouring more money into Amazon.com Inc.’s paid search ads.
Amazon more than doubled its ad revenue to roughly $6 billion in 2018, Magna said. Amazon has been rapidly increasing its offerings to marketers, empowered by its data on consumers’ shopping habits and its direct role in actual sales.
Amazon also increased its own ad outlay by 50% last year to join the country’s top 10 ad spenders, Magna estimated, ranking the company at No. 6 behind Procter & Gamble Co. , AT&T Inc., Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Geico, Comcast Corp. and General MotorsCo.
Spending on out-of-home advertising channels such as billboards, cinema ads, and video screens in elevators and at gas pumps rose 4.3% to $8.2 billion, Magna said, partly on the strength of new interest from technology companies and direct-to-consumer brands that are expanding beyond their roots in social media.
The spread of digital screens and the erosion of other ad channels’ audiences also helped out-of-home advertising, Mr. Létang said. “Some demographic targets are increasingly difficult to reach through television or print, but they’re still reachable through out-of-home, and sometimes in a more cost-efficient way,” he said.
Excluding cyclical events such as the Olympics, U.S. ad spending in 2018 rose 7.3% to $207.5 billion, Magna said.
Marketers will spend some $217 billion on advertising in 2019, Magna predicted, an increase of 1.9%, or 4.1% excluding cyclical effects.
Read the full article here
Magna Predicts US OTT Ad Revenues Will Double By 2020
April 5, 2019 // In the News
By ALISON WEISSBROT. Published by ADEXCHANGER on 5 April 2019.
TV dollars are following eyeballs and shifting to over-the-top.
Magna said Friday that its 2018 forecast for US OTT ad revenues came in short. The agency predicted OTT ad revenues would hit $2 billion in 2018, but they actually hit $2.7 billion at a 54% year over year growth rate.
As a result, Magna is revising its OTT ad spend forecast upwards, predicting 39% growth to $3.8 billion in 2019 and 31% growth to $5 billion by 2020.
“The penetration and consumption of OTT homes in the US grew faster than we thought,” said Vincent Letang, EVP of market intelligence at Magna. “There’s an increasing number of people accessing OTT and more content to be consumed.”
The growth in OTT ad spend is thanks in part to Hulu, which hit 25 million subscribers in 2018 and saw ad revenue grow 45% last year.
It’s also coming from YouTube, which people are increasingly accessing on TV sets.
“Smartphones are still the primary screen for the consumption of YouTube, but a sizable part of consumption is now on the big screen,” Letang said.
OTT is partly offsetting network declines in linear TV sales, which will shrink 3% to $41 billion in 2019. Network TV’s declines would have been as high as 3.6% if not for OTT sales, Magna found.
Linear TV also continues to suffer from pricing inflation, as demand spikes but ratings erode. Magna estimated that last year, the CPM for a primetime national TV spot reaching the 18 to 49 demo was as high as $50 – the most expensive inventory on the market, Letang said.
“The cost is becoming a problem for CPGs and other mass market brands,” he said.
The only way for brands to balance that pricing dynamic while still achieving mass reach would be if more inventory opened up in the VOD space, for example on Netflix. And the notion of an ad supported Netflix isn’t too far off, Letang said.
“Netflix is in a complicated situation with the launch of Disney and Apple products and the removal of Disney movies from its library,” he said. “They will either need to increase their monthly fee or they can introduce an ad supported tier.”
Ad spend momentum is strong
The fourth quarter of 2018 had the strongest growth in US ad spend in the past 18 years – it shot up 12% to $212 billion – thanks to a robust economy and cyclical events like the midterm elections. Overall, US ad spend grew 10% in 2018.
Ad spending grew in large part thanks to the tech sector, which is shelling out on big bucks on TV campaigns to promote new consumer products like 5G wireless and smart home devices, as well as to build consumer trust in a period of privacy backlash. Amazon in particular spent heavily on advertising this year, clocking in as the sixth biggest ad spender in the market as well as the third biggest vendor.
“2018 was a turning point for Amazon,” Letang said. “Up until last year they were a big spender but they were not a big vendor. Now they are big on both sides.”
Direct-to-consumer brands are also buying more traditional media like TV and out of home as their brands grow beyond niche audiences. Out of home grew 4.5% to $8.2 billion in 2018, remaining the only traditional media format to grow in the past few years.
“As connected screens become ubiquitous and replace static posters, that increases the revenue you can get on a particular location,” Letang said.
Audio also added to the growth of the overall US ad market, as broadcast radio came in stable after years quarterly decline. Digital audio’s growth rate, however, has slowed from roughly 20% year over year to 5% year over year as streaming platforms like Spotify and Pandora focus on gaining subscribers.
“Digital audio consumption is growing a lot,” Letang said, “but the ad supported part of digital audio consumption is growing at a slower base than before.”
U.S. AD REVENUE GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2019: MAGNA
April 5, 2019 // In the News
By JEANINE POGGI. Published by AD AGE on 5 April 2019.
U.S. ad revenue growth will slow down more than previously expected in 2019, according to a new study out of Magna, a division of Interpublic Group.
One area poised for meaningful growth in 2019 is over-the-top video, which has seen dramatic consumer adoption and has benefited from viewing from the likes of YouTube and Hulu on connected-TV screens. Magna expects the space to hit $3.8 billion this year and reach $5 billion by 2020. Of course, this still pales in comparison to the $70 billion traditional TV ad business.
While 2019 might see a bit of a slowdown, 2018 turned out to be a more robust year than previously estimated, thanks to a stronger fourth quarter. Magna said domestic ad revenue spiked 9.6 percent to $212 billion, up from Magna’s preliminary estimate of $207.5 billion.
This was the strongest growth rate in a century, Letang says.
Out-of-home and search advertising posted the biggest growth in 2018, with paid search increasing 23 percent to $54 billion, and out-of-home up 4.5 percent to $8 billion.
Out-of-home, which includes things like billboards and TVs at gas stations, is outperforming every other linear channel due in a large part to the massive increase in spending from the technology sector. It’s the only space in non-digital media that has seen consistent growth, averaging 4 percent growth in the last nine years, compared to a 1 percent decline for all non-digital media sales like TV, print and radio.
Search and Out-of-Home Growth Boost Ad Market to New Heights
April 5, 2019 // Press Releases
MAGNA ADVERTISING FORECAST (SPRING 2019)
- Fourth Quarter 2018 Recorded Strongest Advertising Growth in 18 years (+12%) Driven by Digital, Audio and OOH.
- MAGNA Predicts a Tenth Consecutive Year of Growth for Advertising Revenues in 2019.
- Digital Ad Sales will Grow +12% in 2019, While Linear Ad Sales to Shrink -5%.
- Amazon Becomes a Major Advertising Vendor (Doubling Ad Sales) as well as a Major Ad Spender (+50%).
TEN KEY FINDINGS
- MAGNA just published updated estimates and forecasts on US media owners’ net advertising revenues (NAR). It reveals that advertising sales reached a new all-time high in 2018, at $212 billion. Advertising spending grew by almost +10% (+9.6% exactly), driven by the robust economic environment and cyclical ad spend (Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, Midterm Elections). It was the ninth consecutive year of growth and the strongest growth of the twenty-first century, exceeding the performance of 2016 (+9%).
- Fourth quarter 2018 showed the strongest quarterly growth in 18 years (almost +12%), strongest since the third quarter of 2000. Local TV had its best quarter in years with total ad sales up +33% year-over-year, thanks to the record levels of political spend in October. Excluding political and digital sales, ad revenues were down -2.6% yoy, but it was the best quarterly performance of the year (average -3.7%). National TV sales were down -1.3% in line with the three previous quarters (between 0% and -1% excluding cyclical sales). Total Audio Media ad sales were up +2% (best performance in five years): digital audio sales slowed down to +5% but linear radio ad sales grew by +1%, the first positive quarter in five years. Out-of-home had its best quarter in more than a decade, as ad sales grew by +8.5% excl. cinema (digital screens: +20%, static panels: +6%). Digital ad sales were up +20%, in line with previous quarters, with the strongest growth coming from Social (+28% excl. cyclical), Digital Video (+32%) and Search (+22%).
- Among the best performers in 2018: Paid Search (ad sales up +23% to reach $54bn) and Out-of-Home (+4.5% to $8 billion). One player showed record growth in both the supply side and the demand side of the ad market: Amazon more than doubled its advertising revenues in 2018, reaching an estimated $6 billion, based on financial reports, to emerge as a real competitor to Google; Amazon also increased its ad spending by +50% last year, to join the club of the ten largest advertisers (#6 behind P&G, ATT, Geico, Comcast and GM).
- OOH had another very strong year (fourth quarter +8.5%, full year +4.5%), partly due to the huge increase of ad spend from the technology sector. OOH is the only linear media type to experience consistent organic revenue growth. Ad sales grew by an average +4% per year in the last nine years, compared to -1% for all non-digital media sales (linear TV, print, radio, OOH) over the same period, according to a new report on global OOH advertising trends by MAGNA and RAPPORT (the OOH specialist agency of IPG Mediabrands).
- For 2019, MAGNA predicts ad revenues to grow for a tenth consecutive year (2010-2019) to reach $217 billion. The rate of growth will slow down, however, to just +1.9% (or +4.1% excluding cyclical events), as the economic environment starts to cool down. Real GDP will grow by +2.4% accord to the Philadelphia Fed, a decent performance, but a slowdown compared to 2018 (+2.9%).
- Finance, Insurance, Pharmaceutical and Technology are the main drivers in terms of spending verticals. Within Technology, “FAANG” giants are ramping up their advertising budgets, esp. with linear media (television and OOH). MAGNA expects more growth from the Technology sector in 2019: cloud services, smart home devices, the launch of 5G by wireless operators and the introduction of new subscription VOD services from Disney and Apple, are all expected to drive competition and ad spend. Many “Direct-to-Consumer” brands reached scale and started running branding campaigns in traditional media in 2018, in addition to digital media and eCommerce environments. They, too, will collectively contribute to ad spend growth in 2019. Pharma will remain a growth industry, but television budgets could suffer from an upcoming regulation mandating a drug’s listed prices to be mentioned in TV commercials. This may encourage some pharma brands to explore digital alternatives, including digital video (which may be exempt from that new regulation). For more on vertical trends, see MAGNA’s latest “Industry Report”, analyzing and forecasting ad spend patterns across all the large spending verticals.
- Digital ad sales will grow double-digits again in 2019 (+12% to $124 billion) while linear ad sales will decrease by -5% to $92 billion. As digital media now accounts for more than 50% of advertising spending (30% for national consumer brands) growth rates are expected to slow down somewhat. Digital advertising sales will grow by $13 billion to reach $124 billion in 2019, compared to an increase of $18 billion in 2018. The fastest-growing digital formats will be Social (+23%), Video (+19%), and Search (+13%).
- National TV ad revenues will decrease by -3% at $41 billion as the growth of digital sales (+20% for Hulu, Full Episode Players and OTT) partly offsets the erosion of linear ad sales (-3.6%, or -2.0% excluding cyclical events). Linear TV ratings continue to decline due to cord cutting and the long-term shift towards subscription-based VOD, triggering growing cost-per-thousand inflation, as demand from CPG verticals remains robust. Local TV ad sales are expected to decrease by -18% to $18.2 billion as key verticals (Auto, Restaurants) are cutting ad spend or redirecting budgets towards national TV and digital media. Adjusted for the (lack of) elections in 2019, the normalized growth rate will be -5%.
- Elsewhere, Audio NAR will decrease by -3% to $15.6 billion (linear radio -5%, digital audio +4%). Broadcast radio suffers from stagnating pricing, music streaming shifts towards ad-free premium business models and podcasts, though exploding in terms of usage and sponsorship opportunities, remain hard to monetize for publishers. Magazine and newspaper publishers will also face declining ad revenues: -10% at $20.3 billion as digital/mobile sales (+7% at $8 billion) do not offset the erosion of national and local ad sales (-18% at $12 billion). Finally, OOH will grow by +2.8% as new digital screens (Outfront Liveboard in New York, Pearl Media in the new Salesforces Transit Center in San Francisco, etc.) will again attract brands from sectors like Technology, Luxury and Travel.
- The media landscape is set to change in 2019 as OTT and VOD reach mass market and become more competitive with the launch of new services. This may prompt SVOD players (Netflix, Amazon) to explore hybrid, ad-supported business models and thus provide new opportunities for advertisers to reach consumers. Based on the ad revenues of Roku and other specialized OTT players, plus the share of Youtube and Hulu consumption that takes place on TV screens, MAGNA estimate that OTT-based advertising revenues reached $2.7 billion in 2018, growing +54% yoy. MAGNA expects OTT-based ad sales to grow again sharply in the next two years: +39% to $3.8 billion and +31% in 2020 to reach $5 billion.
According to Vincent Letang, EVP, Global Market Intelligence at MAGNA and author of the report: “One of the drivers of the historically long and historically strong era of growth the US market is experiencing, lies in the technology sector introducing mass consumer products and services. While doing so, internet giants ironically discover what CPG marketers knew all along: the power of traditional editorial media (television, out-of- home in particular) to build mass brand awareness.”
Next Forecast Update: June 2019.
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