Future of TV Briefing: How focus groups and media mix models can help incrementality-seeking CTV advertisers

Published on Digiday

This week’s Future of TV Briefing looks at the role that two old-school advertising tactics can play in the still-developing CTV ad market.

    • See TV
    • Streaming’s TV watch time share peaks
    • TikTok loses bid to avoid ban, Comcast and WBD bundle up, Paramount set to slim down, and more

See TV

Maybe the connected TV ad market needs to get more traditional to advance.

I’ve had two conversations in the past week that have led to this line of thinking. The first was with Tinuiti’s Harry Browne about CTV ad measurement during last week’s Digiday Programmatic Marketing Summit. And the second was with Magna’s Kara Manatt about a study the agency did with ad tech firm Nexxen regarding CTV ad creative. Each conversation made a case for CTV — the presumptive future of TV — being in need of old-world “technologies” (if you can call them that): media mix models and focus groups.

In both cases, the underlying motivation seems to be an urge among advertisers to better gauge and guarantee the incremental benefits of their ad buys: To what extent did a campaign actually improve a brand’s chances of converting a consumer into a customer? And to what extent can the brand improve a campaign’s chances of delivering that incremental performance?

“There is just an under-leveraging of incrementality testing across the board, across channels. This is not just a CTV issue; this is across everything. But for CTV, it’s certainly relevant. Incrementality testing is critical. You need to understand what each of your investments is doing for you, above and beyond the other investments that you’re making,” Browne, Tinuiti’s vp of TV, audio and display innovation, said during an on-stage session at DPMS.

CTV seems to be fertile ground for incremental improvements given that it simultaneously offers an upper-funnel forum for reaching broad audiences as well as provides some means for more intelligently reaching those audiences and reaching conclusions on how effectively they were reached. Plus, advertisers continue to pour more money into the medium.

However, despite being an internet-connected device and having identifiers in the form of email addresses, IP addresses and device IDs, measurement for CTV campaigns is still challenged.

“Because of the fact that CTV is not a click-based medium — the ad is served on your television and that conversion happens later on a different device, maybe in a different place — that makes it so much harder from a measurement perspective,” said Browne.

Enter media mix models. They provide a means for comparing CTV campaigns’ performance in relation to other media channels, from traditional TV to search, social, display, etc., so that advertisers can see how each channel contributes on objectives ranging from brand awareness to purchase intent.

“You need some sort of framework to say, ‘CTV gave this above and beyond what my investments on search and social and commerce and display and everything else gave me,” said Browne.

While Browne discussed the post-campaign assessment of an ad’s performance, there’s also an argument that advertisers may be under-leveraging tests on the pre-campaign end to see how relevant an ad may be to its intended audience, which would affect any incremental improvements in brand recall, purchase intent, etc. “We have to use data-fueled creative … because what is interesting to one person and relevant to one person is not necessarily relevant to another person,” said Manatt, Magna’s evp of intelligence solutions.

To that end, Magna and Nexxen conducted a study that used Nexxen’s audience panel to track viewers’ assessments of ads and then applied that data to optimize the creative, such as observing if people struggled to recall the brand associated with an ad and editing the ad to highlight the brand toward the beginning. Another example would be gauging people’s high likelihood to purchase a product after seeing an ad and updating the ad to include a QR code to capitalize on propensity to purchase.

While the study of 943 adults found that optimized ads only delivered a 16% lift in respondents feeling that an ad was relevant, Manatt pointed to increased lifts in search intent and purchase intent as stronger signals. Per the study, optimized ads delivered a 76% lift in search intent versus a 47% lift for non-optimized ads and a 65% lift in purchase intent versus a 41% lift for non-optimized.

“When you get that higher relevance, we see how much more impact that we actually get on search intent, purchase intent, those transactional metrics that we care about most,” she said.

What we’ve heard

“In the U.S., we predict streaming revenue will overtake linear TV revenue in 2029.”

— GroupM in its 2024 Global End-of-Year Forecast

Streaming’s TV watch time share peaks

November was the latest high-water mark for the amount of time people spend streaming shows and movies each month, according to Nielsen’s latest viewership report The Gauge, which only looked at watch time through Nov. 24 (a.k.a. the Sunday before Thanksgiving).

In addition to streaming notching its largest TV watch time share to date, TV watch time overall reached its highest point since February when the Super Bowl helped to turn more people’s attentions to their TV screens. Major League Baseball’s World Series and the U.S. presidential election’s news bump helped to push up viewership for broadcast TV and cable TV, respectively.

Despite a record month for streaming’s watch time share, the shares for individual streamers did not fluctuate all that much. YouTube maintained its lead over Netflix for the largest share. Hulu registered the largest month-over-month increase at 0.3 percentage points, while sibling streamer Disney+ ceded the most share, losing 0.6 percentage points. And Paramount’s Pluto TV remained under the 1% threshold.

Numbers to know

1.8 billion: Total number of streaming subscriptions worldwide, as of this year.

>300,000: Number of podcasts on Spotify’s platform that are video podcasts.

20: Maximum length, in seconds, of videos that ChatGPT Plus and Pro users can create using OpenAI’s text-to-video generative AI tool Sora.

Read the Article on Digiday

Nexxen and MAGNA Report Finds Using Audience Data to Inform CTV Creative Optimization Increases Lower Funnel Impact

Beyond targeting, audience data is key to gaining insight that demystifies relevance for individual consumers

 Optimized ads drive 78% lift in search intent and 65% lift in purchase intent

New York – December 11, 2024 – MAGNA, the media intelligence and investment unit within IPG Mediabrands, and Nexxen, a global, flexible advertising technology platform with deep expertise in data and advanced TV, today announced the release of a proprietary report –  The Intersection of Audience Data + Creative Optimization: How to Drive Action on Streaming TV – that explored how audience data can make ads more relevant and inspire action. The research tested content from brand advertisers across multiple industry verticals including ecommerce, apparel and entertainment.

The growth of high-fidelity, scaled audience data has been progressively improving how programmatic advertising technology connects brands with engaged and receptive audiences. The study found, however, that 64% of viewers surveyed felt that Connected TV (“CTV”) ads are not relevant to them. The difficulty of pinpointing relevance for each individual consumer amplifies this disconnect. Despite frequent interactions with the right streaming video audiences, brands have been missing opportunities to make their CTV ad creative resonate more with them.

The study produced two key insights:

1. Audience data can be utilized for both audience reach and development of resonant creative:

Relevance is crucial to campaign success. Without knowing how to bring it to life, brands may miss optimal campaign performance and should consider pre-activation testing to enhance creative to better resonate with key audiences.

2. Optimization doesn’t mean starting over with creative – and can be handled pre-flight:

Once audience data has identified ways to enhance creative, simple adjustments – e.g., adding branded overlays, QR codes or smart speaker integrations – can be made in post-production and executed by dynamic creative studios. These can propel consumers closer to conversion, without the need to revamp the ad.

The study showed that, regardless of brand category, ads optimized through these means drive both intent and action. Indeed, it found a 78% lift in search intent among new prospects and 65% lift in purchase intent among existing customers, when comparing optimized to non-optimized ads.

“Our research endeavors to help brands avoid wasted ad dollars, and the performance insights this study generated show how that can be achieved through pairing audience data and optimized creative,” said Kara Manatt, EVP, Intelligence Solutions, MAGNA. “The continued growth of CTV and streaming make it a valuable place for brands to reach their audiences, and we believe this study adds to marketers’ strategic toolkits.”

“In this industry, we talk a lot about relevance, but it is really subjective – it could be the music in an ad, the actors, the imagery that appeals to the consumer. And this is no small thing for brands – just like media, creative is a significant financial investment,” said Les Seifer, SVP, Global Creative, Nexxen. “On behalf of their brand clients, media agencies are already applying audience data for targeting. Taking that same rigorous, data-informed approach to creative assets will connect audiences to the ads they’re served, providing the greatest return on investment.”

 

About MAGNA

MAGNA is the leading global media investment and intelligence company, and part of the IPG Mediabrands network. Our trusted insights, proprietary trials offerings, industry-leading negotiation and unparalleled consultative solutions deliver an actionable marketplace advantage for our clients and subscribers.

We are a team of experts driven by results, integrity, and inquisitiveness. We operate across five key competencies, supporting clients and cross-functional teams through partnership, education, accountability, connectivity, and enablement. For more information, please visit our website: https://magnaglobal.com/ and follow us on LinkedIn and Instagram.

About Nexxen

Nexxen empowers advertisers, agencies, publishers and broadcasters around the world to utilize data and advanced TV in the ways that are most meaningful to them. Our flexible and unified technology stack comprises a demand-side platform (“DSP”) and supply-side platform (“SSP”), with the Nexxen Data Platform at its core. With streaming in our DNA, Nexxen’s robust capabilities span discovery, planning, activation, monetization, measurement and optimization – available individually or in combination – all designed to enable our partners to reach their goals, no matter how far-reaching or hyper niche they may be.

Nexxen is headquartered in Israel and maintains offices throughout the United States, Canada, Europe and Asia-Pacific, and is traded on the London Stock Exchange (AIM: NEXN) and NASDAQ (NEXN). For more information, visit www.nexxen.com.

 

Press Contacts
Jazmin Brooks
IPG Mediabrands / MAGNA
[email protected]

Caroline Smith
VP, Communications, Nexxen
[email protected]

 

Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements, including forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the United States Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements are identified by words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “expects,” “intends,” “may,” “can,” “will,” “estimates,” and other similar expressions. However, these words are not the only way Nexxen identifies forward-looking statements. All statements contained in this press release that do not relate to matters of historical fact should be considered forward-looking statements, including without limitation statements regarding the Nexxen and Magna report and any benefits or insights associated with the report as well as any benefits associated with any of Nexxen’s products and platforms including the Nexxen Marketplaces, Discovery Tool, cross-screen measurement tools, Data Platform and CTV offering. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that may cause Nexxen’s actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from its expectations expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the following: negative global economic conditions; global conflicts and war, including the current terrorist attacks by Hamas, and the war and hostilities between Israel and Hamas and Israel and Hezbollah, and how those conditions may adversely impact Nexxen’s business, customers, and the markets in which Nexxen competes. Nexxen cautions you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. For a more detailed discussion of these factors, and other factors that could cause actual results to vary materially, interested parties should review the risk factors listed in the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (www.sec.gov) on March 6, 2024. Any forward-looking statements made by Nexxen in this press release speak only as of the date of this press release, and Nexxen does not intend to update these forward-looking statements after the date of this press release, except as required by law.

 

Media Innovation to Propel the Ad Market Towards Trillion Mark Says Magna

Published on Branding In Asia

Search remains the largest portion of digital advertising revenues representing $101 billion in 2024 – making up 46% of total digital advertising budgets.

MAGNA’s winter update of its Global Ad Forecast reports that media owners’ advertising revenues reached $933 billion in 2024, reflecting a 10% increase, consistent with mid-year projections.

TMO ad sales were boosted by a record number of cyclical events (elections in the US, Mexico, and India, as well as the Summer Olympics, Football Euro, Copa America competitions) and a +12% growth in TMO’s non-linear ad sales (e.g. ad-supported streaming +18%).

Among the most dynamic ad markets this year are France and the US (both +12%), India and the UK (both +11%). Growth was more subdued in Japan and Canada (both +8%), China (+7%), Germany and Australia (both +6%). The US market remained the largest with $380 billion, ahead of China ($155bn).

“The strong growth of advertising spending in 2024, despite a challenging economic environment, was of course driven by an unusually high number of major cyclical events but, more fundamentally, media innovation is what attracts a growing share of marketing budgets into advertising formats,” said Vincent Létang, EVP, Global Market Research at MAGNA, and author of the report.

“Digital Pure-Play ad formats (Search, Retail Search, Social, and Short-Form Video) are fueled by the rise of Commerce Media redirecting billions of dollars from trade marketing into digital formats. The growing reach of ad-supported CTV streaming makes cross-platform long-form video more attractive to advertisers as it now offers scale on top of addressability and brand safety.

“With no major cyclical drivers in 2025, MAGNA expects ad spend growth rates to slow, but the organic factors will remain at work, stabilizing TMO ad revenues, and growing DPP ad sales.”

Focus on APAC

The advertising economy in Asia Pacific grew by +7.5% in 2024 to reach $289 billion. This is taking place in a slightly slowing, but stable, economic environment where real GDP grew by +5.3% in 2024 according to the IMF.

Overall APAC growth of +7.5% in 2024 consists of traditional media owners seeing +1.0% growth to reach $68 billion (24% of budgets), and digital pure player publishers seeing the growth of +9.7% to reach $221 billion (76% of budgets).

Television budgets are stabilizing in 2024 and are expected to be up by +0.1%. This increase in growth is primarily driven by the tailwinds of sporting events – primarily the Paris Olympics.

Digital advertising revenues are the driver of growth

Search remains the largest portion of digital advertising revenues and represented $101 billion in 2024. This is 46% of total digital advertising budgets.

Search advertising in APAC is substantially driven by retail media platforms, especially in China where Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Meituan all drive search advertising revenues.

Core search is also spiking around the world as traditional search platforms like Google and Baidu also see strong performance relative to recent results.

Social media advertising revenues also remain strong in 2024

Social media ad revenues grew by +15%  in 2024 to reach $77 billion (35% of digital advertising budgets). Both search and social media revenues are driven by mobile devices.

Smartphones are not just the dominant way that most consumers access the internet; in many APAC markets, they are the only way consumers access the internet.

The digital strength driving APAC advertising revenues will translate to continued share gains for digital advertising revenues in APAC. Digital revenues will represent 82% of total budgets in 2029, up from 76% of total advertising revenues in 2024.

Source: Global Ad Forecast, MAGNA

​MAGNA is also analyzing many APAC markets with a cross-platform view, where digital pure-player performance is split from the digital revenues of traditional broadcasters and publishers. In 2024, revenue from digital properties represented 11% of traditional publisher revenues in Japan, 18% in China, 31% in Australia, and 5% in India.

In 2024, the strongest growth in APAC came from Taiwan (+11.9%), Sri Lanka (+11.3%), and India (+10.5%). Weak advertising revenue growth, on the other hand, came from Singapore (+2.8%), Thailand (+2.8%), and Vietnam (+4.4%).

APAC as a region is still dominated by China, which represents more than half of total ad revenues. When combined with Japan, Australia, India, and South Korea, those five large markets represent 87% of total APAC revenues.

By 2029, the share of total revenues that are represented by linear advertising formats will have fallen to just 18%, representing about the same number of dollars ($66 billion) as they do today ($68 billion).

Source: Global Ad Forecast, MAGNA

“The APAC advertising market is thriving, growing by 7.5% in 2024 to reach $289 billion,” said Leigh Terry, CEO IPG Mediabrands APAC.

“This growth is fueled by digital advertising, with search and social media leading the charge. While traditional media is seeing modest growth, digital pure players are driving the majority of the market share.

“The future is bright for digital advertising in APAC, with its share of total budgets projected to reach 82% by 2029. Despite some economic uncertainties, the overall market remains stable and poised for continued growth.”

Read the Article on Branding In Asia

Magna expects strongest traditional advertising performance in 14 years

Published on The Media Leader

Ad revenue in traditional media — TV, radio, publishing, OOH and cinema — is forecast to grow 4% to reach $274bn globally in 2024, according to Magna.

In the December update to the Global Ad Forecast from the IPG Mediabrands division, this is the best performance in 14 years, discounting the post-Covid-19 bounce of 2021.

Digital ad sales, meanwhile, will increase 13.1% to $659bn, driven by double-digit growth in search/commerce (+12.1%), short-form video (+11.8%) and social media (+17.9%).

Overall, growth in the global ad market has been revised upward marginally to total $933bn in 2024. Magna now expects growth of 10.3%, up from 10% in its mid-year forecast and representing the strongest growth rate in 25 years, excluding the post-Covid recovery of 23% in 2021.

While sporting events played their part in the strong performance in 2024, Magna believes the global market will still grow by 9% with these taken out.

UK remains third-biggest ad market

Noting the growth in real GDP, a slowdown in inflation and several categories (including food, entertainment and retail) upping their adspend, Magna expects the total UK ad market to reach £43.2bn ($54bn) in 2024, up 11.2%.

This means the UK remains the third-largest ad market in the world, behind the US and China.

Traditional media ad revenue is estimated to grow 1.3% to £7.5bn. Cinema and publishing will both decline (by 9% and 3% respectively), but the others are all expected to increase (TV +1%, radio +3% and OOH +11%).

The marginal growth in TV, estimated at £4.2bn, was attributed to 17% increase in non-linear ad sales (ad-supported streaming and broadcaster VOD). Linear ad sales are forecast to be down 3% for the year.

Notably, non-linear accounts for 23% of total TV ad sales – one of the highest proportions in the world, the report noted.

The UK ad market continues to be impacted by inflationary costs, particularly in TV, with the decline in linear TV viewing pushing down impressions, thus driving up CPMs, according to Magna.

That said, both reach and impressions have increased considerably for ad-supported streaming.

Meanwhile, ad revenue for digital players grew by double digits to total £35.7bn — a 13.5% increase.

This was driven by search/retail formats, which were up 12% to £20bn. The fastest-growing category, though, was social media, with revenue increasing 23% to £10bn.

5 key global trends

Globally, Magna reported France and the US showed the strongest growth at 12%, followed by the UK and India (also 11%).

Japan and Canada were next at 8%, then China at 7%.

In the digital space, the big three of Google, Meta and Amazon outperformed the overall market by growing 11%, 22% and 21% respectively during the Q1-Q3 time frame. This gives them a 51% market share of global ad revenue, or 61% excluding China, according to the report.

Magna pointed to five major trends in the ad market in 2024.

First, commerce/retail media continued to drive digital spending, with marketers adjusting where they spend goes as more product categories move from in store to online.

Secondly, ad-supported streaming has boosted long-form video. While Magna pointed to the success from traditional media owners in developing non-linear ad sales, the most significant progress came from ad-supported streaming.

Third, AI is affecting the market in two ways. It is directly supporting ad revenue as tech companies increase their ad budgets to promote their AI-powered products and services. In a less direct way, AI is also being used in the adtech ecosystem to optimise costs and improve programmatic effectiveness, in turn boosting return on investment for advertisers.

Fourth, ecommerce competition has surged, with direct-to-consumer brands such as Temu and Shein upping their adspend, particularly in digital channels.

Finally, Magna pointed to the strong improvement in monetisation of short-form, vertical videos. However, while spend here is not expected to decrease in 2025, with the format now well-established, the report added: “average revenue per ad view is unlikely to increase again at a similar rate”.

2025 slowdown anticipated

In the UK, Magna anticipates further acceleration in real GDP growth as inflation continues to slow, with some of 2024’s growth drivers applying in 2025 as well, such as the rise in retail media and ad-supported streaming.

However, two major headwinds were identified. First, there are fewer major sporting events than in 2024.

Secondly, the roll-out of new regulations regarding TV advertising of foods high in fat, salt or sugar (HFSS) means TV could lose up to 1% of ad sales if brands choose to withdraw advertising instead of pushing it to later in the evening.

Overall, Magna forecasts the UK ad market to slow in growth slightly compared with 2024, increasing by 8.4% to near £47bn.

Traditional ad revenue is expected to be flat, while digital ad revenue growth will slow to 10.2%.

Globally, the market is expected to reach $990bn — an increase of 6.1%. While digital is expected to grow 9%, Magna is forecasting a decline in traditional ad revenue of 2%.

Read the Article on The Media Leader

Global ad spending is poised to hit $1 trillion—inside the latest forecasts

Published on Ad Age

Ad Age deciphers recent reports from WPP’s GroupM, IPG Mediabrands’ Magna, Dentsu and Madison and Wall

Santa arrived early with a flurry of 2024 advertising spend forecasts from various holding companies and analysts—WPP’s GroupM, for one, predicted that the global ad industry will surpass $1 trillion in total revenue for the first time this year and climb another 7.7% in 2025 to hit $1.1 trillion.

Other estimates were more conservative.

Dentsu’s Dec. 3 global ad spend forecast estimated worldwide advertising revenue to grow by $48.9 billion (6.8%) year over year, to $772.4 billion in 2024. Dentsu predicted slower global ad revenue growth of 5.9% in 2025. IPG Mediabrands-owned intelligence firm Magna predicted in its report released Dec. 8 that global ad revenue would increase 10.3% to $933 billion in 2024, in line with its mid-year estimate. Magna predicted that worldwide ad revenue would be up 6.1% to $990 billion in 2025, enough to “flirt” with, but not reach, the $1 trillion mark next year.

The U.S. remained the leading country for advertising spend.

GroupM predicted in its report dated Dec. 9 that U.S. ad revenue will climb 9% in 2024—excluding U.S. political advertising—to $379 billion and another 7% in 2025. Consultancy Madison and Wall, led by industry analyst Brian Wieser, predicted in a report on Dec. 6 that U.S. ad revenue will increase by 9% in 2024 as well, which is also up from its previous annual forecast of 7.2%.

Dentsu predicted the Americas would “remain the most dynamic region in 2025,” with a projection of 6.3% growth, consuming 47% of the worldwide ad revenue share. Among the latest 2024 U.S. ad revenue forecasts, Magna’s is the most optimistic, projecting 12.4% growth. It expects. just 4.9% U.S.  ad revenue growth in 2025.

Growth trends

In 2024, growth continued to be driven by digital, retail media and TV, including linear and streaming, according to several of the reports, although some said remaining issues in streaming TV, including around measurement, could hold advertisers back from investing heavily there. Meanwhile, retail media might be on the verge of taking significant share from streaming in particular.

Advertising growth continues to outpace overall global and economic growth, several reports highlighted. GroupM called out the International Monetary Fund’s recent world economic forecast, projecting GDP growth of 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, and 3.3% in 2026.

Kate Scott-Dawkins, global president of business intelligence at GroupM, said that it’s impressive that advertising continues to outpace worldwide economic growth, even as inflation has gone up. However, over the next four years, GroupM projects “just slightly better advertising growth than normal GDP growth,” or at least that the two growth figures will be more in line, she said during a recent call to discuss the agency’s report.

The rise in AI products and the use of that technology to make advertising work more effectively and efficiently, Scott-Dawkins argued, may have a more positive effect on future ad growth.

Among “the couple of things that could potentially impact it to the upside, we are expecting a rise in, [what] I’m calling AI endemic advertisers,” she said. “There’s likely to be an influx of advertising from existing players that are really pushing new AI products.”

AI highlights

GroupM’s report included a few highlights on how AI can impact advertising.

The agency predicted that, with the introduction of tools such as GPT wrappers (designed to improve accessibility and usability of generative AI), AI interior design and AI code developers, it’s “relatively inexpensive to spin up a consumer-facing site or offer AI-powered automation tools to enterprise companies, with costs increasing along with query and compute requirements.” These companies will look to consolidate market share and grow categories, and “we expect many will rely heavily on marketing and advertising” to do that, according to GroupM’s report.

Within search, GroupM said there have been advancements in AI that could be a boon to advertising, although there are no “clear revenue impacts as of yet—at the time of writing, Google’s integration of ads within AI Overview has been part of an experimental phase and ChatGPT search remains ad free. But the expense of developing cutting edge AI products and services means that monetization via advertising is likely to be a key part of future offerings,” the agency said in the report.

What are the possible headwinds?

Those predicting more tepid growth in 2025 point to possible geopolitical factors that could negatively impact growth, especially in the U.S.

Madison and Wall’s Wieser lowered his forecast for 2025 U.S. ad revenue to 4.5% from a previous 5.3% projection, due to President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies including new tariffs on imported goods.

“Although some observers (and, at this time, equity markets) may be willfully optimistic that tax cuts and other policies will be positive for the economy, implicitly anticipating that business ‘continues as usual’ over the next four years, we are inclined to believe that policies more likely-than-not to take effect are net negative for the US advertising market,” he wrote in the report.

Wieser also argued that lower inflation, driven by tax cuts and lower interest rates that Trump has promised, could negatively impact advertising. “If high inflation results in greater friction in the economy or otherwise contributes to a reduction in economic activity (i.e. stagflation) then it’s possible that inflation will lead to less economic growth, and all else held equal, less advertising activity,” he wrote.

Digital continues double-digit growth

Digital advertising’s double-digit growth is projected to continue in 2024 and then cool off a bit in 2025, according to some estimates.

Wieser wrote that 2024’s performance shouldn’t go unnoticed. “We have to first consider how extraordinary it is that digital platforms have been able to sustain double-digit rates of growth,” he said in the report.

Madison and Wall predicted U.S. digital advertising to spike 14.3% in 2024 but start to taper off in 2025, projecting 8.4% growth. Digging deeper, Wieser’s firm predicted ad sales on social media platforms will increase only 5.4% in 2025, following projected growth of 16.7% in 2024.

Dentsu predicted in its report that worldwide digital ad spend is expected to increase by 9.2% to capture 62.7% of the total advertising market in 2025. The holding company included a chart (below) with estimates of where chief marketing officers are planning to invest marketing dollars over the next 12 months. Among the findings: 45% of 1,900 global marketing leaders surveyed said that they plan to increase investment in short-form content such as TikTok or Instagram Reels, 43% plan to increase spend on social commerce, 42% plan to increase investment on influencer marketing and 41% plan to boost spend on retail media.

GroupM forecast global digital advertising to grow 12.4% in 2024 and 10% in 2025. The media agency predicted digital would capture 72.9% of total worldwide advertising in 2025 and 76.8% in 2029. GroupM also reported that the largest category of digital revenue, including social media and online video platforms such as TikTok and and most of YouTube, is predicted to grow 12.9% in 2024.

Magna projected advertising sales of digital players including search, retail, social and short-form digital video to increase by 13% to reach $659 billion in 2024, driven by social media (up 18%), search and commerce (up 12%) and short-form video (up 12%). The IPG firm also wrote that the “big three” digital media owners (Google, Meta and Amazon) outperformed market growth in 2024, with ad revenue growing by 11%, 22% and 21%, respectively, for the first nine months of 2024.

Retail media growth

Despite ongoing issues related to measurement and transparency, advertisers continued to invest heavily in retail media networks. In most reports, retail media is included in the digital advertising category, but breaking that out a bit further, it’s showing very strong performance.

Dentsu reported retail media “is the fastest growing digital channel” worldwide and projected it to spike by 21.9% in 2025. “As advertisers value retailers’ unrivaled access to consumer data, they look to strengthen relationships with these platforms, and increasingly turn toward off-site advertising, especially on connected TV,” the holding company wrote in its report.

GroupM predicted that global retail media revenue will reach $176.9 billion in 2025, surpassing total TV revenue (including streaming) for the first time, representing 15.9% of total advertising spend worldwide. The agency predicted that retail media will increase 18.2% in 2024 and is expected to add 9.1% a year on a compound basis through 2029.

TV remained strong

According to several estimates, TV advertising, including linear and streaming, remained strong in 2024—thanks, in particular, to worldwide elections in countries including the U.S. and Mexico and the 2024 Summer Olympics.

Cross-platform TV is estimated to have grown 5% to $163 billion, per Magna’s report, with non-linear ad sales up by 18% thanks to ad-supported streaming. “TV benefited the most from the cyclical drivers of 2024, with $6 billion of incremental ad revenues from political advertising for local television in the U.S., and $1 billion around the Olympic games for national TV,” Magna wrote in its report. Without those cyclical drivers, the firm projected that global TV advertising would be flat in 2024.

Madison and Wall’s Wieser predicted national TV to increase around 0.3% in 2024, which he wrote was still “not so bad.” The growth was “aided by Olympics to be sure, but helped further by the overall advertising industry’s expected 9% ex-political gain,” he said in the report.

“As share shifts away from television by the medium’s largest marketers continue (with limited offsets from emerging or smaller brands), negative growth trends will follow as industry-wide advertising growth moderates,” Wieser said in the report, predicting a 6.1% decline in national TV spend in 2025.

Dentsu projected that the global TV marketplace returned to growth in 2024 (a 1.6% increase) following two years of declining ad spend. Without events such as the Olympics in 2025, spend in this area is projected to decline 2.5% in 2025, per the holding company’s report.

Dentsu predicted streaming to “continue boasting double-digit ad spend growth,” with an estimated 18.4% rise in 2025 “as platforms like Netflix and Prime Video expand their ad offerings to attract more viewers.”

GroupM, meanwhile, projected 19.3% growth in global streaming TV in 2025, and said this space “will still only represent 37.5% of total TV revenue by 2029.”

Dentsu’s survey of global CMOs found there are still issues facing the streaming TV landscape that could hurt investment. Namely, the holding company said in its report that “the fragmentation of the video landscape is still an issue in terms of measurement and planning.”

A chart from Dentsu on the key challenges CMOs face when investing in streaming TV shows its findings: 48% surveyed said they find it difficult to understand if these streamers will deliver as effectively as broadcast TV; 43% responded they’re not sure how to measure new video marketplace opportunities; 42% said there is not enough education or knowledge available on these investments; 37% responded they’re not sure which channels to invest in; and 34% said it’s hard to understand the value of the new video marketplace.

“Streaming companies will have to double down on their efforts to demonstrate their impact in 2025 if they are to continue capturing impressions from broadcast television,” Dentsu wrote in its report.

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